ModelEM_Performance

Background

This document shows the performance of the model-based EMs from a South Atlantic MSE exercise for black sea bass (BSB), vermilion snapper (VS), and red porgy (RP) using the openMSE software (Blue Matter Science).

First SCA application

These first round of analyses are based on the base-case OM scenario at the end of the historical period compared to the first application of the EM.

VS Model-EM Results

VS OM Recruitment Dynamics

EM estimates are presented relative to OM-designated values (e.g., (EMval - OMval)/OMval).

VS EM relative performance

BSB Model-EM Results

BSB OM Recruitment Dynamics

EM estimates are presented relative to OM-designated values (e.g., (EMval - OMval)/OMval).

BSB EM relative performance

RP Model-EM Results

RP OM Recruitment Dynamics

EM estimates are presented relative to OM-designated values (e.g., (EMval - OMval)/OMval).

RP EM relative performance

Final SCA application

These second round of results are comparing SCA-based EM results to the OM dynamics at the final SCA application of the simulation. Plots show histograms of relative error ( EMest-OMval)/OMval ) of EM-estimated values. The bars are colored in gray-scale based on MP, and the bar borders are colored based on the OM scenario.

VS final EM relative performance

VS final EM relative performance

VS final EM relative performance

VS final EM relative performance

VS final EM relative performance

VS final EM relative performance

VS final EM relative performance

BSB final EM relative performance

BSB final EM relative performance

BSB final EM relative performance

BSB final EM relative performance

BSB final EM relative performance

BSB final EM relative performance

BSB final EM relative performance

RP final EM relative performance

RP final EM relative performance

RP final EM relative performance

RP final EM relative performance

RP final EM relative performance

RP final EM relative performance

RP final EM relative performance